Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 14.669727 16.737043 18.951750 21.496219 24.333993 27.396687 30.947287
2025-09-21 11.371774 14.145022 17.338248 21.268175 25.954445 31.342525 37.983936
2025-09-28 9.275889 12.221294 15.777992 20.355014 26.051053 32.865731 41.590742
2025-10-05 8.328060 11.533112 15.564908 20.953784 27.904941 36.500277 47.854072
2025-10-12 7.540773 10.910599 15.303856 21.371517 29.442131 39.704948 53.621974
2025-10-19 6.689878 10.093918 14.685159 21.225153 30.176865 41.858979 58.087650
2025-10-26 5.960190 9.355486 14.083092 21.013348 30.752948 43.768000 62.249014
2025-11-02 5.412054 8.814136 13.693204 21.036835 31.609139 46.043718 66.949310
2025-11-09 4.981017 8.398439 13.436882 21.208666 32.648846 48.578891 72.069454
2025-11-16 4.538642 7.919125 13.040291 21.130878 33.299549 50.568246 76.475727
2025-11-23 4.122113 7.438502 12.597751 20.940008 33.750554 52.263684 80.499037
2025-11-30 3.825474 7.123071 12.380944 21.066495 34.660249 54.633123 85.552589
2025-12-07 3.645943 6.994074 12.458286 21.668038 36.340689 58.233202 92.595831
2025-12-14 3.319150 6.581398 12.044272 21.457428 36.748087 59.947601 96.910135
2025-12-21 2.898207 5.958662 11.229274 20.530675 35.958247 59.787737 98.362566
2025-12-28 2.784246 5.884335 11.337735 21.136298 37.644155 63.484027 105.809524
2026-01-04 2.648851 5.756267 11.340531 21.556355 39.036774 66.762651 112.709820
2026-01-11 2.438530 5.463649 11.028319 21.409184 39.472924 68.533989 117.299504
2026-01-18 2.238345 5.171140 10.693015 21.195671 39.776812 70.090443 121.583895
2026-01-25 2.087804 4.964340 10.499586 21.219373 40.478088 72.304198 126.978155
2026-02-01 1.968397 4.810608 10.393958 21.392491 41.438832 74.967684 133.173513
2026-02-08 1.828536 4.599456 10.161621 21.314119 41.946704 76.887193 138.200678
2026-02-15 1.687637 4.371790 9.879368 21.121803 42.235386 78.438014 142.653675